Creating Fire Resilience in Climate Refugia

Abstract

Ecological forecasting of climate change refugia for species is an area of active research and demand is high in conservation planning. Protecting conservation priority species in refugia requires assessing the risk of threats such as fire along with vulnerability to climate change, while integrating scientific, policy, and values-based considerations, to determine the best strategy for protecting priority plants or communities from both threats. The eastern and western Joshua trees are examples of conservation priorities, and the western species is a candidate threatened species in California and a key resource preservation objective on federal lands such as Joshua Tree National Park. We highlight considerations for a Joshua tree conservation strategy including a review of Joshua tree wildfire survival, aspects of prioritization for landscapes and characterization of risks. We continue with justification for prescriptive wildfire prevention, response and post-fire management, and with restoration recommendations. We find that studies of Joshua trees consistently demonstrate the potential of climate change to significantly reduce suitable habitat for trees in the future; both species demonstrate very low survivorship following wildfire; and there has been mixed success in restoring Joshua trees post-fire. On each of these fronts the successful approach will differ based on site conditions, land management ethic and policy. Combined, these factors challenge the determination of any ideal or unilateral approach to protecting a priority conservation species such as Joshua trees. Promoting resilience in climate refugia requires balancing trade-offs in conservation goals and management actions with conflicting land use priorities and value designations.